Barack Obama has jumped several points in both the latest national and state polls. He now leads by over 4% in the RealClearPolitics average of the latest national polls. Obama also has pulled ahead in Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia, and pulled even in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. He is projected by RCP to win 301 electoral votes, to McCain's 237, and the projecting site Five Thirty-Eight to win 331 EV to McCain's 207, and take a 51.1% to 47.1% victory.
Of course this doesn't mean that McCain has no hope, he stills has over a month to recover the lead, and could be aided if he or Sarah Palin can gain a big victory in one of their debates, or if Obama or Biden makes a significant gaffe (Biden constantly makes gaffes, but they never seem to stick). Now that both of the conventions are passed, and voters are really making up their minds, polls really start to matter. McCain will probably have to have a strong performance the rest of the campaign to have any hope.